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Betting on the Underdogs: How to Spot Value in MLS Outsiders

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Taking a chance with the underdogs is how you find value in outsiders of MLS. Major League Soccer underdog betting has been a tactic that spreads and that different experienced bettors practice. Although several just like backing favorites simply because of their predictability and because it is less risky, well-seasoned punters believe that betting on an outsider may bring about unique value from deflated odds. Unlike most of the major football leagues around the world, upsets in MLS happen more frequently due to the structure that is set up with salary caps and player allocation rules. This can add another level of excitement and potential profit for those who are willing to take calculated risks.

Whereas the traditional football leagues are dominated by powerful teams, the unique structure of MLS forbids one team from monopolizing talent for many years. This means that the gap between the best and the worst is usually smaller, and the teams classified as low are often in a position where they can at least challenge or even defeat the stronger opposition. In turn, the dynamic nature of the league creates room for the astute bettor to find some great odds and make an informed, educated bet on an underdog.

Quite often, too, the bookies simply miscalculate or underestimate the underdog since, quite often, they base their odds on historical table positions rather than taking into account current form or player availability. For punters doing an in-depth analysis of the league, these mismatches are brilliant opportunities to find hidden value in the odds offered. Similarly, $5 minimum deposit casino operators may also present some opportunities for value players, with the same online platforms opening an entrance that allows more accessibility while still offering the possibility of major winnings.

Historical wins: Famous underdog victories in MLS history

Seattle Sounders Fans Waving Flags

MLS is no stranger to shocking upsets, as several underdog teams have gone against the odds to pull off some memorable victories. The league has witnessed, arguably, one of its biggest upsets in the 2016 MLS Cup final, where Seattle Sounders, after a mid-season slump and going into the playoffs as the fourth seed in the West, went ahead and defeated Toronto FC for the trophy. Seattle, playing a vastly defensive game, held Toronto to a goalless stalemate before emerging winners on penalties. Their victory, despite being outshot and out-possessed by Toronto, showcased the unpredictability and competitiveness of MLS.

Perhaps one of the most memorable moments in MLS history would have to be the 2009 MLS Cup Final when Real Salt Lake pulled off one of the biggest upsets in soccer history to claim its first-ever title from obscurity. A lowly eighth-seed team, RSL barely struggled to enter the playoffs and later upset the heavy favorites LA Galaxy in a pulsating final. RSL won the match on penalties, again proving that in MLS, so-called minnows do rise to the occasion whenever the situation calls for it.

This kind of win is not an aberration but a larger trend that seems to define MLS, where perceived weak teams make use of tactical discipline, momentary lapses by the stronger teams, or plain overachievement when the situation calls for it. For those betting, this just furthered the idea that underdogs are always worth keeping an eye on, especially in a league known for competitiveness and parity.

Finding value bets by key variables

In order to find value when betting on an MLS underdog, a number of key factors need to be taken into account. The more inexperienced punter would do well to look no further than a team’s standing; however, the seasoned punter knows that other factors can often come into play and produce surprising results in a single matchup. Some of those important factors to be considered are as follows:

1.     Current form

The teams at the bottom of the table might also pull out something sensational if their recent form has been good. Sometimes, a team’s position on the table does not define its current form. A good example would be a side that lately managed to pull some good results with some positives from the back of a series of matches, considered an underdog, which could perhaps be a great value to bet on. It means monitoring their recent performances, both at home and away, will signal if that underdog is likely to pull off an upset.

2.     Injuries and suspensions

A second common miscalculation by the bookmaker is how an injury or suspension would affect the favorite. The absence of star players or critical defensive anchors completely changes team dynamics. On the other hand, perhaps the underdog is better positioned to exploit such weaknesses. For that reason, regular injury reports and news regarding any star players missing in the favorite lineup are important for bettors. This often provides value odds on the outsider when an underdog is facing a weakened opponent.

3.     Home vs. away performance

Given the large geographic stretch of North America, many teams in the MLS have a huge home-field advantage. Those accustomed to weather conditions, altitude, or style of play at home tend to find life difficult when they travel across time zones. The visiting team with a much poorer away record against an underdog playing on their home ground could be a prime value bet opportunity.

Why punters are drawn to the underdog

mls soccer match winger takes on defenders
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The reason people like to place wagers on underdogs is deeply rooted in human psychology. It is inherently thrilling, supporting the less favored and watching them rise to the occasion, often paying even more in emotional and financial rewards once payout occurs. This is what has been described as underdog bias, a common phenomenon generally in sports betting, but as a matter of fact in human nature itself.

First, underdogs have a lot better returns for lower stakes. Bookmakers make outsider odds long, so the prospect of a big win is attractive. Statistically, underdogs really should not win, yet this perceived chance of a big win can be too good to bypass. Secondly, there is a real cultural and emotional appeal to pulling for the underdog. We instinctively feel for the underdog, as there is something peculiarly meritorious about his struggle. It is an emotional response that can lead the punter to back an underdog when, rationally, perhaps they really should be backing a favorite. It appeals to some sort of optimism whereby the punter feels that the underdog can cause a surprise by beating the odds.

Finally, for those weary of low returns from backing favorites, the underdog will add much-needed excitement and variability to the bettor’s experience. Since MLS is generally quite unpredictable, this underdog betting often brings a welcome thrill along for the ride in the journey of betting.

How to bet smartly on underdogs in MLS football

Betting on underdogs in the MLS can be a rewarding strategy but definitely requires caution and discipline. Rather than betting on underdogs simply for the potential of big payouts, savvy punters base their decisions on current form, injuries, tactical setup, and home advantage. All these key factors, when combined with data-driven decisions, will aid in finding value for the punter and, more importantly, increase their chance of success.

Smart betting also extends to managing expectations as well as bankrolls. Though the underdog can and does win in MLS, they do not win all of the time. Diversifying their bets and not placing too much bankroll on a single game allows bettors to weather losses while still experiencing the delight of periodic big wins. The more analytical a punter can be when betting on MLS underdogs, the more enjoyable it is to see the upsets materialize and still keep him profitable in the long run. The right approach will let bettors find the real value and cash in on the surprises that make MLS so unique.