Betting On MLS and Soccer in the USA

Major League Soccer Betting Guide

For many soccer fans, placing a wager on their favorite MLS team is part of the weekly soccer ritual. However, this has not always been possible.

America has a complicated relationship with sports betting and gambling more broadly, made no simpler by the fact the US is run using a federal system. Federal law applies to the whole country, whereas state law only applies within state lines, plus, some states get special treatment and there are tribal state laws and sovereignties to consider too.

Betting on MLS is a relatively new concept in America, although markets have been available on other continents for some time. This is down to the timing of federal law changes and the launch of Major League Soccer itself.

When MLS first began in 1996, sports betting was mostly illegal in the United States. A few states allowed it, the big one being Nevada, while Oregon, Delaware, and Montana also offered very limited forms of sports betting, but it was slim pickings.

The landscape is very different now, but because the rules vary from one state to another, they can be confusing. To that end, I will explain how sports betting works in every single US state and take you through the history of sports betting in America.

The 1961 Wire Act – First Federal Crackdown

JFK Signs Federal Wire Act
JFK Signs Federal Wire Act

America has always had a bit of a reputation for lawlessness, and gambling is usually involved in that – the Wild West, Prohibition, the Italian and Irish Mafias, etc.

Although this was more often associated with casinos rather than sports betting, horse racing betting was legal and open to exploitation, black market bookmakers were in operation, and match fixing scandals like the 1919 Black Sox Scandal did sports betting no favours.

In 1961, J.F.K signed the Federal Wire Act into law, aimed at preventing organised crime syndicates from profiting off gambling. The law specifically prohibited the use of wire communication (telephone and telegraph services) to place bets across state lines.

While it was not explicitly written to target sports betting, it became a tool for federal authorities to restrict it. Over the decades, the interpretation of the Wire Act became a subject of legal debate, particularly regarding online sports betting.

The reason this was still relevant in the modern day is because when internet betting came along, there were questions over whether the Federal Wire Act should apply. The internet is ‘wired communication’ after all, despite not even existing when the Wire Act was passed. The Department of Justice was consistently debating how and what the law should and should not apply to.

It also laid the groundwork for the most important federal gambling law change in American history – PASPA.

The 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA)

From the 1980s to the early 1990s, the integrity of sporting competitions was a growing concern amongst those in the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NCAA amongst others. This was due to the potential increase in popularity in sports betting.

History warned them that an increase in legalized sports betting could also bring about an increase in match fixing and corruption, and illegal betting was still commonplace too.

People were concerned that the spread of legalized sports betting would have a negative impact on professional sports, but especially on amateur sports which were thought to be much more easily corrupted. The aforementioned leagues lobbied for a federal law change to prevent this.

They were successful, but the law did not make sports betting a criminal offence. Rather, it took away the right of each state to legalize it, so any existing rules remained in place which is why Nevada et al were able to continue as before. New Jersey were actually in the process of legalization and were given 12 months to complete the process, but couldn’t get things organised in time.

So while sports betting was going through a boom in other parts of the world, the majority of America was restricted from taking part for over a quarter of a century. The fact that Major League Soccer played its first season in 1996 means that MLS fans had never been able to place bets on their favourite teams.

The 2018 PASPA Repeal – State Regulation

States where gambling is legal after PASPA repeal
States where gambling is legal

The phrase ‘opened the floodgates’ could have been coined specifically for the 2018 PASPA repeal.

Once rumours began circulating that repeal was on the cards, bookmakers and gambling brands scrambled to take advantage of this huge new market. There was something of a gold rush as companies positioned themselves for market share, but since sports betting had been illegal for such a long time, American companies had no experience in the world of digital sportsbooks.

The UK, however, had a thriving and technologically advanced sports betting industry. This created a situation where UK/US gambling partnerships were announced seemingly every month. The US wanted the UK’s sportsbook technology because it was quicker than developing their own, so mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships were frequent.

The rules around sports betting shifted from being federal law to being state regulated, so each state had to make their own decision on what would and would not be allowed, and how wagering on sports like MLS would work.

Although aspects such as taxation and how gambling licenses were issued varied from one state to another, most states had moved to legalize betting in one form or another by 2024. Interestingly, some of those that didn’t were big sporting states with multiple MLS teams, such as Texas, California, and Minnesota.

A handful of states are still trying to push for legalization and may be successful over the coming years, but as it stands, the states in America where sports betting is legal are:

  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi (Retail only)
  • Montana (Retail only)
  • Nebraska (Retail only)
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota (Retail only)
  • Ohio
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Puerto Rico
  • Rhode Island
  • South Dakota (Retail only)
  • Tennessee
  • Virginia
  • Vermont
  • Washington (Retail only)
  • Washington, D.C.
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin (Retail only)
  • Wyoming
  • New Mexico (Retail only)

Sports Betting Still Illegal

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • California
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Minnesota
  • Missouri
  • Oklahoma
  • South Carolina
  • Texas
  • Utah

A Guide on Soccer Betting

MLS Betting Markets

Just because you can bet on MLS, it doesn’t mean you should, but if you do want to place a few wagers then this next section will help set you off in the right direction.

There are countless soccer betting markets to choose from, some more popular than others and some offering better value too. Knowing the basics will give you a fighting chance when placing your bets.

Understanding Margins and Value

The first thing to get your head around is the bookies’ margin. You can think of this like their fee for supplying the service in the first place.

A bookmaker never offers true odds, they will always take a small margin to ensure they make a profit. For example, if you were to toss a coin, the true probability of heads or tails would be 50/50. A bookie wouldn’t offer true odds of +100 though (2.00 in decimal), they would offer something like +95 (1.95 in decimal) giving them a 2.56% margin (1.28% on each side) and a 102.56% total implied probability. By artificially inflating the total implied probability above 100%, they can pay out less than true value. They therefore make a small amount of money regardless of the outcome, because they haven’t priced the market to reflect the true odds of either outcome.

In a soccer match, we can use a 3 way market such as match result to demonstrate this further.

Let’s use these as example odds:

  • Home win – +150
  • Away win – +187.5
  • Draw – +220

This shows the sportsbook has a margin of 5.97% on the match result market.

This is worked out by first converting the odds to decimal. It’s really easy, you just divide the odds by 100 then add 1. So: 150/100 = 1.5. Then: 1.5 +1 = 2.5

Do this for all outcomes, then you need to turn them into percentages to find the implied probability. To do that, you divide 1 by the new decimal odds. So 1/2.5 = 0.4000. Move the decimal point across two places to make 40%. The sportsbook is saying they think there is a 40% chance of the home team winning.

Do this for all outcomes and you will arrive at a number over 100%. The bit over 100 is the margin – in this case it is 105.97% hence a margin of 5.97%. They have given each outcome a higher chance of occurring than is realistic in order to shorten the odds.

All of this is important because if sportsbooks are not offering true odds the punter is not getting true value. The risk reward ratio is unbalanced in the sportsbook’s favour. Sportsbooks need to do this to stay in business, so they aren’t doing anything wrong, but punters should know they are at a disadvantage.

This also allows you to recognise bookmakers who take lower margins than others, therefore offering better value, just as you would look for best value when shopping for anything else.

MLS Popular Bet Types

Betting lines can become quite complicated, but most people stick to a few core markets that are easy to understand.

For new bettors this is the best place to start since it allows you to get to grips with betting and enjoy it, before potentially exploring more complex options.

Some of the most popular MLS bet types are:

  • Match result – A simple bet on the home team, the away team, or the draw.
  • Both teams to score (BTTS) – Neither the result nor the goalscorers matter for BTTS, but both teams need to find the net at some point inside 90 minutes.
  • Over/Under – This can be applied to goals, cards, corners, anything really. You are betting one side of the line or the other. Over or under 2.5 goals is a popular one.
  • Double Chance – This is where you back two possible outcomes of your choice. Home win and draw, or home win and away win, or draw and away win. Shorter odds but less chance of losing.
  • Draw No Bet – Bet on either team to win, and if it’s a draw your bet stake is refunded, but if the other team win your bet loses. Similar to double chance in terms of risk.
  • First/Last Goalscorer – Own goals don’t count. You are betting on the first or last player to score a goal in the game. A very difficult bet to win.
  • Anytime Goalscorer – As above, but the player you select needs to score at some point in the game, it doesn’t matter when. Still tricky.
  • Correct Score – You are betting on the exact score after 90 minutes. Another very difficult bet to win.
  • Outrights – These are long term bet on which team will win the MLS Cup, or their conference, or the U.S Open Cup, for example.

Accas are also very popular, but these are not traditional single bets and take a bit of explaining so I will cover them in full below.

Other Soccer Bets

These bet types are less popular, but can come in useful once you understand them. I would consider these to be unsuitable for beginners, but they don’t exactly take a great deal of experience to understand.

  • Half Time/Full Time – You are betting on who will be in the lead (or a draw) at the half time whistle and at full time. There are nine potential outcomes so it is a hard bet to win.
  • Goal Range – It doesn’t matter which team scores them, you just need to predict whether the number of goals scored will fall into the selected range, say 2-4 goals. Yes or No?
  • Handicaps – This bet gives one team a head start for the purposes of the wager, creating a bigger challenge and therefore longer odds in a heavily unbalanced game. You might give the Portland Timbers a +2 handicap meaning they start 2-0 up (as far as the bet is concerned). If they lose 1-0 in reality, your bet still wins because of the fictitious 2 goal advantage. The opposing team must win by more than the handicap. If the result is a draw, your stake is returned.
  • Asian Handicaps – This bet also gives one team a head start, but eliminates the possibility of a draw by using a decimal. So a -1.5 handicap on Atlanta to win would mean they start the game 1.5 goals down, and would have to win by a margin of 2 goals for your bet to win: if they win 1-0 you lose, if they win 3-1 you win.

Accumulators (ACCAs)

Accumulator MLS Acca

An accumulator bet, also known as an acca or a parlay, is incredibly popular with soccer bettors. This is because the odds can really pile up, offering huge returns for very small stakes.

There is a reason for that of course, which is that ACCAs are incredibly difficult to win. Bookmakers love them because they are such a good earner, but punters love them too because they are a lot of fun and hold so much potential.

An accumulator is lots of single bets stacked on top of each other to make one big combined bet. So the odds for each individual selection are multiplied to create much bigger odds, which is why the more selections you make, the longer the odds get. To qualify as an acca, the bet should have 4 or more selections.

You might select the following teams to win over the weekend:

  • Minnesota United FC @ +400
  • Inter Miami @ -200
  • New York Red Bulls @ +125
  • St Louis FC @ +200

We turn those odds into decimals then do the following:

  • 5.00 × 1.50 × 2.25 × 3.00 = 50.63

So the combined decimal odds are 50.63, which we can turn back into American odds to get combined odds of +4963.

The bookmaker’s website does all this instantly, but that gives you an idea of how it works without getting to mathematical. A small stakes bet can therefore give a great return… if you win. Getting 4 MLS match results right is much harder than it may appear!